Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: A National security issue for Egypt, all possibilities escalation incoming ..and a military strike unlikely

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Middle East Experts: all possibilities escalation incoming .. and a military strike unlikely

Dam Ethiopian plateau .. real danger to the national security of Egypt.

In exclusive statements to the «Middle East » , former Egyptian Minister of Irrigation and Water Resources of, Dr. Mohamed Nasr El Din Allam , admitted the existence of errors in dealing with the Egyptian administration file Ethiopian dam . The occurrence of a kind of complacency , out of concern not to escalate the situation with Addis Ababa and create enmities , in the period of the Egyptian revolution .

While Dr Mohammed El-Orabi , and former Egyptian Foreign Minister , told «Middle East » , that foreign policy did not err , and that the error was on the part of the state while the file assigned to the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the art represented by the Ministry of Irrigation .
Ethiopian Renaissance Dam project has become highly controversial , after the announcement of Ethiopia for his residence without waiting for the approval of the Egyptian side or compatibility with him .

At a time when the Ethiopians celebrated the dam as a national project and the start of development and evolution , prepared by the Egyptians a real disaster threatened by death from thirst , starvation , and perhaps also because of its negative effects on Egypt’s share of water and agricultural projects . The failure of dialogue between officials of the two countries negotiating , in his rounds in a row , to heat up the atmosphere between Addis Ababa and Cairo , and the escalation of tension to the point of talking about the possibility of resorting to military action , or a lightning strike to destroy the dam. Have contributed to visit Field Marshal Abdel Fattah al-Sisi to Russia Finally, the increase in concern about the situation of the Egyptian , Ethiopian and accessories design to proceed with the construction of the dam on the Blue Nile , a tributary of the River Nile .

These developments have raised many questions about the future of the dam file Ethiopian and Egyptian official dealing with him , and the potential for escalation on both sides.

He sees the beauty of the strategic brigade footnotes , a professor of crisis management and negotiation in the Nasser Military Academy , to file the dam Ethiopian politician linked to the national security of Egypt , and should not be underestimated , he said. He told «Middle East » that dam Ethiopia is one of 34 dams had been planned there , which means that the issue were not a surprise to Egypt , but the government missed a blind eye to what is going on , and the end of what has happened in the era of President Morsi of slack .

Unfortunately began Risk touched the occurrence of earthquakes in the region , is the first consequences of the dam , because the artificial lakes lead to the occurrence of earthquakes. Therefore, they can not raise the volume of the stock to 164 billion cubic meters , which is equivalent to stock the High Dam in Egypt , because of the different geology , and the inability of the land to withstand the pressure of this amount of water . The dam does not have the ability to remain steadfast , and thus re-opened the issue now , because they did not find who stands for them , after the transformation of the file to the Ministry of Water Resources , although it was a file security nationally with the brigade of the late Omar Suleiman , who was not allowed to think about the project. So it did not come up until after his death . And contributed to the complexity of the matter what is passing through Egypt since the events of the revolution , in addition to the inconvenience suffered by the international organization in the world, and the U.S. position , and the succession of aid to Ethiopia , from here and there , by virtue of the proverb «The interests reconciled » ; Therefore, Ethiopia now talking full capacity for the dam , after it had been talking about the dam does not exceed a capacity of 30 billion cubic meters , and besides , we endure as a result of our negligence Africa during the past years .

And solutions , footnotes confirmed that the safest solution is to «Back to negotiate together , with our support , and to highlight our strength , in the framework of responding without resorting to it . Therefore, the visit to Russia Marshal Sisi carried an important message to all parties , to let them know we will not stand by when American weapons . But this does not mean a declaration of war , it is not wise , because Africa is the depth of Egypt and its extension , and it is not unreasonable threat of war in this region , at this time you stand international institutions against Egypt , led by the United Nations and NATO , which defends Turkey the event of any harm in Ethiopia , by virtue of its support for the bridge Ethiopian » . He said: «The beating the drums of war against Ethiopia means that Egypt offers calls to all countries of the world to intervene , by virtue of the fact that Ethiopia is not a small country the size of Egypt » .

Maj. Gen. Jamal footnotes to the international and regional climate is also suitable for even a lightning strike . He did not need to open windows reconciliation , but was forced Egypt to create intermediaries , this is not a defect , whether the mediator normal or negotiator replace one of the parties to speak on their behalf , to ensure that what was agreed upon , taking into account that the rest of the blocks are working for their interests , and rely too much on Arab countries and its role in supporting Egypt’s position .

He concluded by saying that there are other methods can work it out without the announcement of the details , along with the tireless efforts that do not harm and without any emotion .

* Controversial early

* Dr. Haidar Ibrahim , thinker and researcher Sudan , told « Middle East» The subject moves within the framework of propaganda ignorant, issued politicians scene requires specialized experts , because there are aspects of technical and specialist on the subject of the dam , is that you must have a higher floor , but what happens is that the subject is taking a political dimension exaggerated , as evidenced by conflicting statements by officials in the governments of Sudan and Egypt ; They speak as politicians and not specialists in water and dams. Which contributed to disturb the atmosphere , and the conversion of the issue after a technical issue with my knowledge, to the political crisis . Ibrahim said that the dam Ethiopia has raised all this controversy , just imagine and maps on paper , trying to Ethiopia displayed on some countries to help them , because they will not be able to implement the project alone. Thus , I believe that the subject holds great exaggeration and Thuala . He also said that there is a ratio of evaporation and losing big in the waters of the White Nile and Blue , because of the presence of weeds absorb waters . Had our scientists to examine how the provision of this waste , and get rid of those weeds to provide a large surplus could benefit the downstream countries . Rather, there is a problem afflicting Southerners in Sudan , because of the surplus of excess water , which are swamps , and cause malaria. And wishes of the population if this got rid of the surplus for the benefit of Egypt to achieve a double benefit , but unfortunately , did not raise these issues . The focus remains only on the politicization of the crisis dam Ethiopia without knowing the real details of the project , even a mere maps on paper , not for anything but for reasons of excitement , and this is the scourge of our people unfortunately .

* Geological hazards

* On the technical aspects of the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam , Dr. Maghawri Shehata , an expert in the geology of water Menoufia University , told «Middle East » , that the Ethiopian dam has become a reality , after Ethiopia rules set its own infrastructure . Ethiopian officials have announced that from September next book will be the water behind the dam , which affect Egypt’s share .

He added that the reason for the controversy over Ethiopian dam to be built on the Nile River , many regard to the risks arising from its aftermath ; dam area because its special nature of the basal rocks , a type of rock consisting of the earth’s crust . The formation of two-thirds of the Blue Nile River Basin , in its upper part , of Basalt , any water that will be charged fragments of basaltic rocks . The body of the dam consists of concrete and slots for turbines , in addition to the body of another dam attached to , a dam secondary earthy rockfill , along the 4800 meters , and storage capacity of 63 billion cubic meters , to reach the total energy storage in two dams together to more than 90 billion cubic meters , after adding the groundwater . This means that about 90 billion tons of water will fall on this part granite cracked , who suffers from spacers and fractures , and may occur some earthquakes in the region, the power up to six on the Richter scale , threatening the body dams together, they faced sliding and collapse , exposing Sudan the risk of flooding and dumping , so the disappearance of the entire city of Khartoum . It also will reach the Egyptian territories , some of these disasters . This is in addition to other problems, engineering and technical , revealed studies and reports of the Tripartite Commission International , where he pointed the German side that the dam is located over the area of engineering tectonic dynamic animation and unsafe , exposing the dam destroyed because of the mass of water and mass of the two dams together , as well as risks related to the occurrence of interactions between water and rocks.

The detection expert Hydrogeology «Middle East » that the Ethiopian side was given the task of establishing the dam , by direct order , to the Italian company . Specifications and placed in a hurry , and this is not uncommon in such national projects , for their race against time and speed of completion , although it is supposed to be completed in phases according to scientific studies specialist .

The d . Maghawri Shehata that there is an error in the design of the dam , where the water flows through the body of the dam , putting him at risk , as well as environmental risks . He said he should have been on the Ethiopian side to listen to Egypt , and go to other alternatives for electric power generation required , through a series of small dams and less detrimental impact on water security in Egypt. But Ethiopia is committed to stubbornness despite the fact that the dam would cost ten billion dollars , and not more than life expectancy at 15 years . But there are parties in the international theme , led by Turkey, which does not understand the secret of its insistence on the transfer of negative experiences in Syria and Iraq to Ethiopia in the face of Egypt . But the issue Bnuah linked to political , nor carried out in the framework of friendly cooperation meant , among the States of the river basin each.

* Ethiopia can not afford to retreat

* On the other hand , said Helmi Shaarawi , director of the Research Center of Arab and African countries in Cairo , told «Middle East » , said Egyptian officials bear responsibility for what has happened historically scene of confusion on the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam . In addition, we are known in the world Bahadarna water , while between 10 and 15 billion cubic meters per year , due to improper handling of the Nile. But nevertheless , this does not mean that comes Ethiopian side and beat me through the big jump carried out by the Ethiopian government in the storage capacity of the dam ; were talking , in the beginning, about 17 billion cubic meters a maximum of being stored within 7 to 15 years , even We were surprised that the boom in storage capacity, and maybe it was defended Egyptian government in dealing with it , like a non- harmful to Egypt at that time .

He Shaarawi , however , the Egyptian government can not put pressure on Ethiopia to stop the project ; because the image that are not known to many that Ethiopia smaller part in the topic, it does not have undone , because it regards capitalism the world , and the idea of ​​globalization of water projects for the exploitation of energy , including projects River Nile ; draft Ethiopian Renaissance dam project is not just a bilateral or simple , but a global project ; Vhawwait dam is an Italian investment , and energy production investments Indian – Chinese . A Chinese company will transfer electricity , while Israel is the marketing of the product , means a broker . It is the right of Egypt as a market big thinking to participate in the investment .

* Military solution error

* On the possibility of resorting to a military solution or a military strike to fill Ethiopia , said Maj. Gen. Adel Soliman , a strategist and president of the Forum Strategic Dialogue , told «Middle East » , I completely disagree with those who promote the idea of ​​a military strike against Ethiopian, but I see these statements sort of absurd, because it is not proper to say that we were talking and state support Africa in the past. The era of military strikes ended , and can not be compared to the subject of dam Ethiopia subject of Digger , who was kidnapped in the process of intelligence purely ; we are not in a state of war , and the Nile Basin countries are divided into states Sourcing corridor and estuary , and is supposed to have a common interest in cooperation and agreement on how to exploiting the huge water resource , note that this resource does not benefit almost only about six per cent of it only , and the rest being lost , and the right of the State of Ethiopia to assess development projects and development, power generation , having lived for years deprived of these projects . It is therefore not right to resort to a military solution , we can not do, do not physically nor geographically . On the contrary, I see that such statements hostilities in Egypt caused us problems , but on the other hand Egypt can resort to international institutions , and file a complaint not to ask for the demolition of the dam , but for the formation of a neutral committee and specialized , looking and monitor damage to the dam and its aftermath , and how the solution, Unfortunately, mismanagement in the Egyptian government , and the failure of the Egyptian foreign policy in dealing with file dam behind this crisis now , and it was supposed to be heading Egyptian officials to understanding with the countries of the Nile without Come , and that is being discussed in the context that the issue of the dam technical issue political double , to the source important and vital water affects us , and then required to deal politically and technically with the subject and with high efficiency and well-thought out , and in the framework of cooperation between the Nile Basin countries , and do not forget that we state the mouth of Ethiopia and the State of source .

* Shortening Egyptian

* In response to the accusations , finally to the Ministries of Water Resources successive in Egypt , failing to file dam Ethiopia , said Dr. Mohamed Nasr El Din Allam , Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation , during the period from 11 March 2009 until January 30 ( January 2011) , in an exclusive statement to «Middle East » , Ethiopia took advantage of periods of the Egyptian revolution and events subsequent to expedite the establishment of the dam , although there was an error in the Egyptian administration undoubtedly in dealing with this issue , and the event type of complacency , but it was so out of concern for the not to escalate the situation with Ethiopia and creating animosities in a difficult and unstable at the time.

The minister pointed out Allam told «Middle East » that the outline of the Renaissance Dam began in 1964 in response to the construction of the Aswan High Dam in Egypt. The U.S. has sent a large mission in 1958 on the establishment of a number of projects , including the four major dams , one of which is called bridging borders and is now known as the Renaissance Dam . The capacity of the dam until 2010, ten billion cubic meters , and then jumped to $ 14 billion . Ethiopia has tried throughout history to establish this dam , but has not done out of respect for the leadership of Abdel Nasser . Then filed a complaint against Egypt in 1959 , followed by its separation of the Ethiopian Church for the Egyptian church after the 1624 Year of the link, and then renewed skirmishes in the Sadat era when stopped Addis Ababa threatened to demolish the dam , and the preference of the martyrdom of Egyptians in Ethiopia to die of thirst . It reiterates the same position in the Mubarak era , the days of Field Marshal Abu-Ghazaleh , and then days , Omar Suleiman , who has threatened to destroy any special facility to build the dam on the Nile River .

On the role of the Egyptian side in this matter , explained Minister of Irrigation and Water Resources previously , that Ethiopia entered the scheme dams in 2005 , and Egypt called for the fulfillment of the studies of the harmful effects of the dam on them, and then rejected the Egyptian side of those studies , and rejected the establishment of any dam , even being taken into account those effects .

He added that after the Egyptian revolution appeared leaks Ethiopian place around a dam dam border . Within two months, was signed with the Italian company is fast and contrary to the procedures of international law , must be notified of Egypt before taking such a step . Then he traveled the then Prime Minister , Essam Sharaf , and agreed to form a tripartite committee to evaluate Ethiopian Studies . Here was a mistake Egyptian administration , and being soft in preventing the escalation of the situation. The result was that this was an advisory committee , and a non-binding opinion . It is strange that two days before the expiration of that committee report , was diversion of the Blue Nile , which led to the escalation of the crisis , in particular , the Commission concluded that the Ethiopian studies is integrated . After the events of 30 June , and instead of negotiating about the size of the dam and the severe harms Egypt , Ethiopia rejected the presence of international experts , and merely Bamahliyn . Although the Egyptian inadvertent error , it led to the imposition of Ethiopia style on Egyptian and Sudanese negotiator .

And the possibility of resorting to international arbitration , said d . Nasreddin Allam It must be approved by both parties to resort to international arbitration. Ethiopia ‘s position is clear , they will not agree , but there is another way , as did the Palestinians with Israel , regarding the separation wall , where they were resorting to the International Court of Justice , through the knock on the door of the General Assembly of the United Nations . Here you can get a legal opinion within a year or a little more , Egypt used for political leverage on Ethiopia . I assure that it will not be completed dam Ethiopia these standards , Egypt will not allow this, and will use all means available .

* To convince the world first

* Expert International Water Dr. Nader Noureddin , professor of water resources at the Faculty of Agriculture at the University of Cairo , also expressed reservations about the idea of ​​resorting to a military solution , and told « Middle East» Egypt can not carry out any military action against the dam Ethiopia , before they convince the world first, the justice of the case of Egypt; Ethiopia lays down the principle of behaving this mess dams in the world, and the imposition of the principle of absolute sovereignty on the joint facility . Which is not permissible , but they succeeded in convincing the world that Egypt is that hate is good for Ethiopia , and that the Egyptians are stealing the Nile water despite the fact that United Nations estimate indicates that Ethiopia gets 122 billion cubic meters of rivers only , go including 71 billion of the Nile River . The position of the Addis Ababa disingenuous , since with the Ethiopians 13 dams , filling the Renaissance is No. 14, and it will be followed by a series of dams that store nearly 200 billion cubic meters , which is dangerous ; Therefore it is necessary for Egypt to clarify to the world of fact , but unfortunately the owners of a just cause , but her lawyer is weak, which foiled the same case , where I left the scene of Foreign Affairs of the Ethiopian just feels like we have been overshadowed , despite the great loss that accrue to Egypt because of the dam Renaissance , where the book 74 billion cubic meters behind the dam , over the three years , from the Blue Nile , which does not exceed the total water 48 billion cubic meters , will mean a shortage of 25 billion cubic meters of Egypt’s share during that period , including , followed by set-aside five million acres , and then become a 12 billion cubic meters M_khasomin of Egypt’s share annually , which means the set-aside 2.5 million acres at least , that is about 30 per cent of agricultural land Egyptian Stbur , and thus increasing food gap and the gap of water , and then if it was dam Ethiopia costing about nine billion dollars , it will cause losses to Egypt up to about 20 billion dollars , but the world does not know these details, and our argument is absent for.

And demanding Noureddine Egyptian officials to submit a complaint to the African Union first, and then the United Nations and the Security Council , to mobilize world public opinion , and we raise the issue before the International Court of Justice ; Because arbitration is the glory of the required approval of Ethiopia as well, which is not happening .

The Dr. Nabil Noureddine that time « not on our side , because the Ethiopian side refused to stop the construction of the dam until the agreed upon » . So we have not only to move quickly through three to six months to come , before they start booking in the water late this year .

In response to the indictment of the Egyptian foreign policy of weakness and laxity in dealing with the file dam renaissance of Ethiopia , said Dr. Mohammed Al -Orabi , and former Egyptian Foreign Minister , said that the Egyptian Foreign Ministry did not fail , but failure came from the whole country ; Because dealing with this issue was entails the formation of a higher committee to like the Commission on the issue of Egyptian Taba , but unfortunately was handed the file to view art represented in the Ministry of Irrigation – with respect her – but did not reach a satisfactory result , which is what brought us to where we are now , but that does not mean beating the drums of war , but is required Egypt ‘s diplomatic exercise strict with Ethiopia , especially the latter has taken on the offensive against Egypt , after the January revolution , and its sovereign loss in that period . The minister added Orabi that Ethiopia now applied skillfully invitation to negotiate the rounds in order to gain time , which is known in diplomatic , pointing out that the issue of dam Ethiopia will not die , especially highlighting the geological hazards , all countries , not Egypt and Ethiopia only , and view this file on the community international , and then we will get to the result of this addition to work in parallel with other alternatives , Kthalih water and the use of nuclear reactors and other alternative projects .