Letter from Addis Ababa: Ethiopia one of the most fertile places on Earth

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Although I am a regular visitor to Ethiopia, every time I step out of the plane and take my first few breaths – a mixture of high altitude thinness with a scent of humid grassland – I remember how mistaken my first impressions were.

Just like everyone else, I had images of the poverty, drought and famine of the 1980s in my mind. These could not be changed until I actually went there myself.

However, what you think would be a dried-up desert turns out to be one of the most fertile places in the world – and not just in terms of agriculture. Africa’s second most populous country is also one of the most youthful societies on the planet, whose population of 91 million is expected to nearly double to more than 170 million by 2050, according to UN projections.

Ethiopia has also managed to place itself among the fastest-growing economies in the world, with an average GDP growth rate of 10.6% over the past decade.
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With this level of growth – and projected rises of 7% a year over the next three to five years, according to the World Bank – you might think that you have missed out on a great investment opportunity. But as I look out of the window of the taxi that inches up the Airport Road, I realise that this economy still has a long way to go.

What I see on the streets is a reminder that despite all the growth, Ethiopia’s GDP per capita is still one of the lowest in the world. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying that what is on display is hardship and misery – Ethiopians have a distinctive and humble elegance about them, no matter how poor they may be.

Addis Ababa, like many other African cities, is a hyperactive human ant hill where everyone always seems to be doing something. Countless makeshift metal shacks form a vast commercial hub, creating a marketplace without boundaries. I wonder how much of the commerce I see is actually registered as official business.

As our taxi bounces in and out of the potholes in the road, we are reminded that Ethiopia still faces serious structural challenges. In fact, the reason why we are only inching up the road is because of all the construction work, which should make these roads better. Only three years ago even a short taxi ride would test your spine to the point of needing therapeutic massage.

The driver asks me where I am from. When I tell him I am from Belgium, he wants to know if I am from Brussels. Over the years I have grown deeply impressed with people’s knowledge here. The driver proudly explains to me that just like Brussels, Addis is also a political capital because it has the headquarters of the African Union and diplomats from all over the world.

Most Ethiopians seem genuinely interested in foreigners. Could this be because it is the only African country that was never colonised? What is certain is that Ethiopians are very proud of this independence. This must have fuelled their courage to interact so assertively with the rest of the world and seek pragmatic partnerships with the world’s leading powers.

I often wonder what it must be like to run a developing country that is set to become one of the most populous nations in the world in less than a lifetime. Especially challenging is the way that people now have more access to information than ever. This raises expectations and puts pressure on policymakers to keep millions happy. And although Ethiopian policymakers are learning fast, they always need to balance domestic and foreign interests.

What policymakers seem to understand is the need to build industrial capacity that will create jobs for a rising middle class. Similar to China 20 years ago, Ethiopia currently has a pool of skilled low-cost labour in a pragmatically managed and stable political environment. This is one reason why China and Ethiopia have built such close ties. Ethiopia has much to learn from China. In addition, it also has the potential to become one of the world’s most productive farming grounds.

–Baldwin Berges is managing partner at Silk Invest

Baldwin Berges, Financial News